The first leg of the Europa League 2025/26 qualifying playoff between Malmo (Sweden) and Sigma Olomouc (Czech Republic) will take place on August 21 at the Malmo New Stadium. Malmo vs. Sigma Olomouc: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Tobias Stieler (Germany)
Matches – 15 (International matches, 2024/25–2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 62;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.1;
Red cards shown – 4;
Average fouls per match – 22;
Penalties – 27%.
The Swedish champions have already come through three qualifying rounds but fell short against Copenhagen, missing out on the Champions League. For the Czechs, this is their first European campaign since 2018, and simply reaching the main stage of any competition is a major achievement.
Malmö began their run with victory over Georgian side Iberia, then knocked out RFS, but collapsed 0:5 in the second leg against Copenhagen. Now the task is to secure a Europa League place. Last season the Swedes failed in the group stage of Europe’s second competition (31st overall), and two years earlier finished bottom of their Champions League group. Domestically they trail the leaders by 11 points, so Europe is their chance to salvage the season. Their last 10 matches show seven wins, one draw and two defeats, but inconsistency remains the issue: heavy defeats mixed with strong wins. At home Malmö are unbeaten in eight of their last nine fixtures (five wins), though in Europe they lost to Mjällby and drew with Copenhagen.
Sigma won the Czech Cup last season to earn a return to Europe after seven years. They have started well in the league, collecting 10 points from five games to sit fourth, with their only loss away to Sparta. At the weekend they beat Zlín (1:0), again showing stability. Their last European appearance in 2018 ended badly with heavy aggregate defeats to Sevilla and Everton (0:8). This time the minimum goal is already achieved, with a place in the Conference League guaranteed if they fall short. But their record against top-level opponents is bleak: six straight defeats without scoring against clubs from Europe’s stronger leagues.
By quality and experience, Malmö are clearly superior. The Swedes are regulars in European group stages and boast a settled squad, while Sigma are only just returning to the continental stage. The Czechs look solid in their domestic competition and could make life difficult with their defensive organisation, but Malmö must take control at home or risk complicating matters in the return leg.
